Will the Helsinki summit limit Iran’s influence in Syria? George Issa (Annahar Newspaper-Lebanon)

* At some points the translation from Arabic might not be as accurate as should

“I said that from the first day, engaging with # Russia and with #China and with everyone is very good.” Domestically, the words of US President Donald Trump may not have a positive echo among his American opponents who saw Russia intervening in his favor in the presidential election. Internationally, the potential success of this summit may be reflected in the easing of tension in the areas of disagreement between Washington and Moscow, albeit in a limited manner.
When he hosted the Russian president Vladimir Putin, Trump’s national security adviser John Bolton, told him: “Your arrival has given us hope that we could make the first steps to revive the full relations between our two governments.” From here, the revival of bilateral relations can be achieved by easing the situation on some squares. In this context, Trump said the summit would discuss Syria, Ukraine and “many other issues.”

The difference between the statements of Biskov and Trump hardly began to analyze the prospects of the two presidents to reach an agreement on reducing the Iranian presence in Syria, denied a spokesman for the Kremlin Dmitry Piskov on Thursday
“The media that promoted these reports relied on unreliable sources.” He noted that there would be an exchange of views on the issues related to Syria with Putin’s readiness to discuss, but that “the parties discuss the affairs of a third party, and to take any decisions on his behalf, does not seem realistic.

On the other hand, it is enough to repeat Trump’s mentions about withdrawing his forces as soon as possible from Syria so that he has already given up a negotiating paper with Putin. This is in contrast to the words of Piskov, who at least raises the Russian roof before negotiations.

However, the journalist and head of the “Geo- Strategist Observatory for the Middle East Dr. Nicos Panayotides, said Trump was thinking or pressed by his advisors to rethink the eventuality of withdrawing his forces from Syria immediately after the defeat of the Jihadists of ISIS. “My personal opinion is that some US forces will remain in Syria to limit the growing Iranian influence there, said to “Al-Nahar
Some suggest that Putin can make formal concessions to the US president that may be closer to verbal promises. According to Pavel Baiev of the Brookings Institution, Putin “can easily promise not to interfere in Israeli attacks on Iranian forces in Syria, since in fact, Russia has never tried to oppose it. “In addition, Putin may not be far from the possibility of putting his counterpart in front of a fait accompli recently achieved in Syria.

Caroline Glick -deputy managing editor of Jerusalem Post-in the the American” Prepartt ” referred to Israelis commentators who point out that after the acceleration of Moscow’s military operations in the Daraa, Putin will reach the summit of Helsinki at a time the task has been completed. Then “After the Russian victory Trump will convince that US operations in Syria are futile and that he must accept Russian superiority, with Iran, in the war-torn country.” Will this make the Russians easier? It appears that the Russian plan in Daraa is proceeding as planned in general after the agreement has been made.

Thus, on the eve of the summit, Putin will have drawn a large part of the fait accompli that Trump and the US administration would like to see before him. The division of the US administration over the perception of Syria will make it easier for the Russians. With Putin achieving his goal in southwestern Syria, there will not be much left to debate on July 16, “The head of the International Crisis Group,” Axis “American Robert Malley said. He explained that the administration is divided between those who want to focus on defeating and advocating agreement with the Russians, and between the two centers on the # Iran
And those, he added, who favor the opposition against Assad, who is an extension of its influence, and those who oppose Tehran, but not concerned about the south of Syria, which will collapse in all cases in their belief.

Continuing the “same pattern” Panayotides, who is also assistant professor at the American-College in Nicosia, believes that Trump will push Putin to restrict Iran’s presence in Syria, but he is unlikely to be able to get concessions on this issue, because the Russian president does not have the appropriate will to relent on this. He observes that the conflict has a deep geopolitical nature in Syria, “Why would Russia take any step that would put pressure on the relationship between Tehran and Moscow?” Panayotides, pointed out to “Nahar”, adding that Russia will continue to follow the same way of co-existence with Tehran’s actions in Syria and Israeli reactions. “The Russian president may express to Trump his determination not to change the status quo as long as Russia’s interests in Syria are not threatened.

In addition, Panayiotides added “we must point out something else, that during the last two summits in Hamburg (July 2017) and Danang (November 2018) Trump and Putin had discussed many issues, but there was no agreement on anything special. For example, the cease-fire in southern Syria, which was the main issue in Hamburg, collapsed substantially in late June after the Assad attack on Daraa. “
According to the general picture, Panayotides was not far from Robert Malley’s analysis, which concluded that “the final result is very likely to be a statement that strongly refers to a complete withdrawal of foreign forces forces from Syria and the noble goal of a political solution, followed by few changes on the ground, if that happened.